Should Georgia open up its economy?

The decision to fully open up Georgia’s (The US State) economy will be made by Georgians. However, I wanted to take this opportunity to share some data and create a checkpoint. I am also hoping to use this data as a reference when analyzing future decisions. Let’s start by understanding the pros, cons and what is missing.

The Pros

• Georgia had the highest number of new confirmed cases on April 7th. However, there is no clear data showing that the number of cases are trending down.
• The days are getting longer and summer is approaching. There is evidence that sun light kills virus; and countries in the equator / southern hemisphere have had fewer incidences of COVID-19.
• Georgia is not as densely populated as New York.
• Georgia’s confirmed case and death rates are much lower than New York.
• If successful Georgia’s economy will recover faster; and deliver a much needed cure for cabin fever.

Source: Google

The Cons

• To the best of my knowledge testing has been limited to those showing at least moderate COVID-19 symptoms.
• Compared to New York, Georgia has approximately 1/10th the number of cases and deaths per capita. Without adequate control measures in place the impact may be 10 times worse than current levels.
• If there is an explosion of COVID-19 new cases / deaths the economy may need to be closed again and for a longer period.

What is missing?

• The problem is not just how many or who is dying (e.g. people who are older and people with underlying health conditions).
• Does the healthcare system have the capacity deal with additional hospitalization? Beyond a certain threshold COVID-19 related deaths and other deaths can skyrocket.
• An increase in COVID-19 cases will ultimately impact healthcare and other essential worker health and wellbeing; and can even lead to healthcare and food shortages.